Justin Herbert, is it time for everyone to panic?

With the maximum departure of Herbert’s elite offensive weapons, is this the time we should sell before the value dips even more? In this article, I will lay out some stats for you to form your opinion and give you my “expert” opinion because you know I’m never wrong… Don't read that Fields article.

Background

This past season was a letdown for Herbert's managers because of his inconsistent performances, going out on week 14 and missing the rest of the season. On a point-per-game average, he ranked 11th, averaging 18.5 pts, but if you take out the game he got hurt, he averaged 19.78, which would rank him QB 6, just ahead of Jordan Love. Not only is this memory in managers minds, but now his situation has worsened with the departure of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Keenan Allen (Yes, I put Everett on the list..). Herbert has a new coaching staff with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman calling the plays, and we expect the Chargers to be a run-first team that will set up play-action and give Herbert easier passes to complete. Chargers also hold the 5th overall and all of their original picks, acquiring pick 110 (Via Chicago from the Keenan Allen trade), and have a compensatory pick, 253. We all know, or hopefully now learning that this draft class is loaded with WR talent, that they can take one of the premier WR talents at five or the best TE Brock Bowers, at pick 5.

Free Agency

Additions

TE Hayden Hurst

TE Will Dissly

RB Gus Edwards

C Bradley Bozeman

Stats

Without Williams and Allen

Without Williams and Allen is a two-game sample size, which happened back in 2022. In weeks 9 and 10 against the Falcons, Herbert went 30/43 and threw for 245 yards (5.7 YPA), one touchdown, and 1 INT. In week 10 against the 49ers, he went 21/35 for 196 yards (5.6 YPA), one touchdown, and 1 INT. This is truly the smallest sample size (3% of his total attempts) and is hard to predict the future with.

Without Mike Williams

In a 16-game sample size, Herbert has an 89.9 passer rating, 3,871 yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His yards-per-game average is 241.93. This sample size equals 23% of Herbert's total pass attempts.

Without Keenan Allen

In a 10-game sample, Herbert has a passer rating of 93.7, 2,708 passing yards,16 TDs, and 5 INTs (StatMuse). His passing yards per game average is 270.8 yards per game this sample size equals 16% of Herbert's total pass attempts.

My take

I’ve always been higher on Herbert he’s an elite QB, and we’ve seen from Patrick Mahomes that if you’re an elite QB, you don’t need a top WR to help you win games and score fantasy points. I expect the Chargers to draft a few WRs to fill in the missing gaps and see Herbert throw the ball less. I do not expect the Chargers to take a WR at five since the team has so many other holes that need to be filled, which I expect without Harrison Jr, Nabers, and Odunze landing here. I can easily see how the dynasty community reacts to and sells Herbert. Regardless of the risk, I have Herbert as my QB 4 overall in Dynasty; I moved him one spot back behind Burrow. I’ve been super aggressive in acquiring more shares of Justin Herbert. I traded Lamar Jackson for Justin Herbert and D’Andre Swift in a Super Flex league. This was a lateral tier move, and it's a no-brainer for me to get a plus on top. In conclusion, if you can get Herbert for a discount right now, I would do it on Twitter. I made a price check poll go check out the results! Twitter Poll